I find it ironic that I stopped blogging as soon as I left India for the Middle East, considering the fact that the Middle East, with Jordan in particular, had a bigger influence on my life than almost anything I have ever experienced. I should probably try to recall my not so distant memories from my time spent in Oman, The United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, The Palestinian Territories, Israel and....of course.....Jordan. I came home from my trip to the region on my 29th birthday, October 30th of this past year, 2010. For reasons I wont get into right now I ended up back in Jordan on Christmas day, 2010. I was supposed to be there for 11 days only, but as I had just gotten fired from my job, I ended up spending a month. The start of what would later be known as the Arab revolution was emerging in Tunisia while I was in Jordan, and during my brief visit to Lebanon, their government collapsed the day I flew back to Jordan. I decided I just had to live in Amman, Jordan, study the language I have grown to love, and hopefully go to grad school for international relations while living in a land I love. So now....the countdown is on. 52 days left until I leave for my new home....and this is the e-mail I receive from my normally very open-minded, and very supportive, Jewish, liberal, father:
Pilar,
I am now VERY worried about what is going on in the middle east and have decided to write down some of my concerns, and to do it in a way that trys to keepmy emotions out of what I have to say. I know you have your heart set on going to Jordan, and I want you to be happy and to live where you want, and I am fond of Jordan and your friends there, I really am.
But the whole middle east is in turmoil right now, and although it was thrilling to see Mubaraks government fall, and to see the Syrian dictatorship be challeneged, there is a strong tendency towards a regional war starting to emerge. If that happens, there is no way that Jordan will be able to escape being strongly affected by it.
The Palestinians are going to declare a state in September. I am for that, but unfortunately, it is being done in such a way that is driving the current Israeli government to react in a disastrous way. Between these two things, we could have big violence break out between Israelis and Palestinians.
Yesterday Hamas and the Palestinian Authority announced they were setting aside their differences and going to have elections and create a 'national unity' government. While this could be a positive development for the Palestinians, it is having the effect of isolating Israel. The peace process, as pathetic as it is, is likely to completely fall apart, lead to desparation among the Palestinians and then probably a 3rd Intefada. The first two Intefadas left thousands dead on both sides.
Egypt, with it's new government, is bound to side with the Palestinians, and Egypt was always Israels greatest security threat. Width Mubarak gone, it is likely to get very tense between Egypt and Israel, especially if the average Egyptian sees Israelis shooting Palestinians on their TV's every night.
We are already seeing a bloody crackdown in Syria, and that will certainly spread into Lebanon, since Syria and Lebanon have historically been one country and still see themselves that way. Iran is very influential in Syria and Lebanon and they are bound to get evens stronger. the Iranian and Syrian governments will not tolerate the 'Arab spring' in Syria and Lebanon.
and right next to these hotbeds of unrest and violence is a small paradise called Jordan. Half of Jordans population is Palestinian. It's hard to see how they will remain emotionally detached from their cousins next door in Israel when Israeli troops are likely to be shooting Palestinians. That will create unrest and the possibility of civil war in Jordan between the Jordanian Palestinians and the Jordanian Hashemites.
Jordans army is strong, and could probably contain the Palestinians, (by shooting lots of them) but at that point, the civility inside Jordan would probalby be gone anyway, and westerners in particular would be tempting targets for those who wish to create 'incidents' and hurt the Jordanian royal family and relationship with the west.
the whole region is going in the wrong direction. Israel could quite likely find itself facing great hostility on it's borders with Egypt, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza. If they feel encircled, the Israelis will absoltely not hesitate to strike first, and it's hard to see how the Jordanian royal family could survive if all the other Arab countries are joined against Israel except them. if a general war between Arabs and Israel breaks out, Iran will certainly put their military might and muscle behind the Syrian regime, behind Hamas in Gaza, and behind Hizbullah in Lebanon. Iran would love to see King Abdhullah overthrown, and wartime is when such things happen.
Jordan is not going to disappear. This is the wrong time to be thinking of going for an extended period of time. I am begging you to postpone your plans for a few months and wait and see how things are going. It's your decision to make, but when I say I am begging you to put off your trip, I am not kidding. This danger is very real.
Dad
Wow. What do you say to that? It was obviously well thought out and extremely intelligent and not (well, not entirely) based on fears from the American media. I always said the next person that asked me "are you sure its safe...you're american..." I was going to smack in the face. Ive been to 25 countries: I've never felt safer than I did in Jordan, including the city I live in Philadelphia. People are so scared of Arabs and Muslims in general, that they think the middle east is one hot bed of terrorism when in reality it's a land of ancient and rich culture, modern, peaceful, friendly and HOSPITABLE people, good food, good music, and most importantly, acceptance of other cultures. Of all the countries in the region, Jordan is by far the most open minded and peaceful, with the exception of Lebanon who unfortunately, has Hizbollah and a never ending war with Israel standing in their way to be the gem of the Middle East. So when my JEWISH father who never questioned my love for the Arab world (or Arab, Muslim men for that matter) wrote me this email it left me feeling kind of panicked. I'm going to go....because although Jordan wont dissapear I could, and I dont want to wait to start my life. I've never been a "waiter" and I am not going to start now. At the same time, the thought of my parents sitting at home worrying everyday whether or not I am ok is very disheartening as well. So to start I had my friend Feras, who lives in Salt, Jordan, write him an email. Next, my father promised to call my girlfriend Dalla who also lives in Salt and talk with her. We will go from there.....